NBA Predictions 2008-09

Eastern Conference:

1. Detroit Pistons (58-24):
With a new coach, and a bevy of young players – like Amir Johnson and Rodney Stuckey – ready to contribute to this already solid team, the Pistons look poised to keep up their streak of finishing near the top of the eastern conference for at least one more year.
2. Boston Celtics (57- 25):
They overachieved last year, had no significant injuries, and lost James Posey in the offseason. With that being said, they were the champs last season for a reason, so even though they might finish second in the conference, they’ll still be one of the NBA’s best squads.
3. Cleveland Cavaliers (53-29):
With the addition of Mo Williams, LeBron James now has his best Cavs team since being drafted by Cleveland.
4. Toronto Raptors (51-31):
Am I overrating them? Yes, definitely. The Raptors are incredibly thin at every position and are far too reliant on their best players – all injury prone – staying healthy. This prediction represents their maximum potential; their likely finish will more likely be 43 wins and seventh in the conference.
5. Miami Heat (47-35):
The Heat will win their division, and the reason why? Dwyane Wade will play out of his mind this year, and win the NBA MVP award.
6. Orlando Magic (45-37):
Dwight Howard needs to refine his offensive game for this team to become a true contender.
7. Philadelphia 76ers (43-39):
This team is still very young, they overachieved last year, and they are relying on Elton Brand, who has yet to prove that he has recovered from Achilles tendon surgery.
8. Milwaukee Bucks (38-44):
There are 7 decent teams in the east; someone’s got to get the last playoff seed.
9. Washington Wizards (37-45):
10. Chicago Bulls (35-47):
11. Atlanta Hawks (32-50):
12. Indiana Pacers (30-52):
13. Charlotte Bobcats (27-55):
14. New York Knicks (27-55):
15. New Jersey Nets (24-58):

Western Conference:
1. Houston Rockets (59-23):
They’re well-coached, play excellent defence, and only suck in the postseason.
2. LA Lakers (58-24):
Defending Western Conference champs, they have a stacked team and look poised to make another deep playoff run.
3. New Orleans Hornets (57-25):
If Chris Paul misses any significant amount of time, this team is screwed. Without him, they’re a borderline playoff team; with him, they’ll challenge for the title.
4. Utah Jazz (53-29):
With Jerry Sloan and Deron Williams, you can bet the Jazz will be among the top teams in the West, but I think that Boozer's best days are already behind him; same for AK-47.
5. San Antonio Spurs (49-33):
The team is ageing and Ginobili is hurt; don't be surprised if the Spurs are out of the playoff picture as late as half way through the season.
6. Denver Nuggets (47-35):
Many experts are writing off the Nuggets chances, but I disagree. Carmelo, AI, and JR Smith are three of the best offensive talents in the league, and the loss of Camby -- one of the most overated defensive players in the league -- won't hurt them nearly as much as some are predicting.
7. Phoenix Suns (45-37):
I wish D'Antoni was still their coach, and I wish Marion was still there instead of Shaq. Their new defensive approach will make the team boring and lose more games than they have since Nash arrived in the desert.
8. Portland Trail Blazers (42-40):
This is a nice young team, but I can't see them improving much more than this. In the West, you need a superstar to propel your team to elite status. The Blazers best guy -- Brandon Roy -- is far worse than any of the other Western conference top teams' best player.
9. Dallas Mavericks (41-41):
10. Golden State Warriors (36-46):
11. LA Clippers (34-48):
12. Sacramento Kings (32-50):
13. Memphis Grizzlies (28-54):
14. Minnesota Timberwolves (25-57):
15. Oklahoma City Thunder (24-58):
Terrible team, terrible name.

PLAYOFFS:
1st Round:
Pistons over Bucks
Celtics over 76ers
Cavs over Magic
Raptors over Heat

Rockets over Blazers
Lakers over Suns
Hornets over Nuggets
Spurs over Jazz

2nd Round:

Pistons over Raptors
Cavs over Celtics

Spurs over Rockets
Hornets over Lakers

Conference Finals:

Pistons over Cavs
Hornets over Spurs

Finals:

Hornets over Pistons

Awards (Runners Up in Brackets):

MVP: Dwyane Wade (Chris Paul)
Rookie of the Year: Michael Beasley (OJ Mayo)
Most Improved Player: Thaddeus Young (Chris Duhon)
Coach of the Year: Rick Adelman (Michael Curry)
6th Man: Ben Gordon (Leandro Barbosa)
Defensive Player: Josh Smith (Jermaine O’neal)

NBA Playoff Predictions

Eastern Conference:

Boston over Atlanta (5 games):

This is my upset pick of the first round; the Hawks will steal a game from the Celts – but that’s all.

Detroit over Philadelphia (4 games):

Detroit is notorious for mailing in long stretches of basketball, led by The Real Mailman, Rasheed Wallace. The Pistons even lose focus sometimes during the playoffs. Just a few years ago, as a 1seed, they were down 3-1 in the first round to T-Mac’s woeful Orlando team. Philly, by virtue of their blistering finish to the season, have the Pistons notice entering the playoffs, and I don’t think they’ll be taken lightly. Philly has a nice core of athletic players which complements their up-tempo style, but their lack of a go-to-guy will cause them to be swept.

Orlando over Toronto (7 games):

As a Toronto fan, I’m probably giving the Raps an extra win here. Toronto whimpered down the stretch, faltering to a .500 record after being as much as 8 games over. The Magic, conversely, have been consistently good all season and have D-HO dominating the paint. While the Raps have played the Magic pretty well recently and were privately very excited to play the Magic, and not the Cavs, the biggest difference in this series will likely be at the sidelines. Sam Mitchell was badly outcoached by Lawrence Frank in last year’s playoffs and look for the same thing to happen with Stan Van Gundy this year. Look for the Raps to look confused against the Magic’s zone defence and a prediction: the Raptors will lose a close game in this series solely because of a boneheaded play in crunch time. At this point, I can’t predict the specifics, but look for it in games 3-6.

Washington over Cleveland (6 games):

LeBron James is good enough to win 2 games by himself. The rest of his team couldn’t beat the Kansas Jayhawks. Barring a superhuman performance from The King, the Wizards depth, superior coaching, and better blogging should propel them to victory.

Western Conference:

Lakers over Nuggets (7 games):

Are the Nuggets this year’s Warriors? After edging out Golden State for the last playoff state, everyone will be rooting for them (except for NBA executives rooting for a Boston-LA final and bandwagon LA ‘basketball fans’). This is the way the series is going to go down: Denver will steal game 1 on the road, LA will win games 2 and 3, Denver takes 4, LA 5, and Denver sends it to a 7^th game by protecting home court. Unfortunately for Denver, Kobe Bryant will make sure the Lakers don’t face the same fate as the ’07 Mavs and blow the Nuggets out of game 7.

The reason this series is going to be closer than people think is because this is a terrible matchup for the Lakers, an excellent offensive but mediocre defensive team. What makes this Lakers team so hard to guard is their unselfishness and a willingness to make an extra pass to get wide open looks. Against a pathetic defensive team like the Nuggets, they were going to get a ton of open looks anyways. Essentially, then, the Lakers greatest strength is weakened significantly. Conversely, the Lakers’ D will not be able to put the clamps on Denver’s high-powered offence. High scoring teams like the Nuggets, Warriors, and Suns have more success against teams with good offences and bad defences and struggle mightily against teams that defend well – and take away these offensive teams’ strengths. This is why the Suns have struggled so much against the Pistons and Spurs but have pretty much dominated everyone else in the NBA over the last 4 years.

Hornets over Mavs (5 games):

Chris Paul has absolutely dominated the point guard position this year, especially embarrassing Steve Nash and Jason Kidd each time he faced the older guys. While Kidd used to be an elite defender, he’s not any more, and Paul will take advantage. The experts are mostly picking the Mavs, but I don’t buy it. People have been underestimating this team all year long, but it’s time to realize the truth. This team is legit. Chris Paul is legit. And this series is not going to be that close.

Suns over Spurs (6 games):

Is this the year that the Suns finally beat the Spurs in the playoffs? I say yes. San Antonio has looked particularly vulnerable this year, and there offence sputtered badly down the stretch. If Ginobili’s shot is off, this Spurs team will struggle to score in a big way. The Suns can throw Shaq at Tim Duncan to push him off the block or, if Ginobili isn’t hitting, double down and force Duncan to pass every time. Meanwhile, the Suns have to win this year. Because if they don’t, I’m afraid their time has passed. New Orleans is an up and coming team, the Lakers will be getting better and better as Bryant, Gasol, and Bynum continue to mesh, and even the Trail Blazers will be much improved over the next couple of years – never mind the Jazz, Mavs, Spurs and Rockets who have a couple more good years in them. So look for Steve Nash to play particularly inspired basketball and coax everything he can out of Grant Hill, Shaq, and the ever-improving Amare Stoudemire.

Jazz over Rockets (4 games):

The Jazz don’t lose at home. T-Mac doesn’t win in the playoffs. Add that up and you get the first team in NBA history to have a 22 game win streak and get swept in the playoffs. At least they’ll always be featured in an annoying graphic indicating that the 2007-08 Houston Rockets, featuring Carl Landry, Luis Scola, and Rafer Alston, had the second longest win streak in NBA history.

2^nd round:

Celts over Wizards (5 games)

Pistons over Magic (6 games)

Lakers over Jazz (6 games)

Suns over Hornets (7 games)

3^rd round:

Celts over Pistons (6 games)

Suns over Lakers (7 games)

Finals:

Suns over Celtics (7 games)

Raptors Screwed!!! (By Sam Mitchell)

Closely scrutinizing the controversial video of TJ Ford's disallowed game-winning alleyoop last night proves quite telling. While the clock clearly started before TJ touched the ball, in violation of league rules, it's unclear that he scored in the 0.5 seconds left, so it's unlikely the Raptors protest will be successful. What can be determined from that video, though, is why the Raptors were in that situation in the first place. As Ford went up for the alleyoop, Mike Bibby looked on from the sidelines. That's right -- the sidelines, even though he's their best offensive player. Interesting concept that is: when in need of a stop, a coach might actually alter who should be playing. Sam Mitchell has not figured this out. With 11 seconds left, Atlanta had the ball down 3 points. Mitchell decided to leave TJ Ford -- the Raps' shortest player -- on the floor to defend the three-point line and try to secure the rebound. The Raptors ended up giving the Hawks three good looks from beyond the arc as they could neither defend the Atlanta shooters well nor corral the rebounds. On Bibby's game-tying 3, he shot it "over" the barely 6 foot tall Ford. Maybe, just maybe, that shot would have been more difficult had Anthony Parker been guarding him. Mitchell: you have three capable, athletic, defensive swingmen in AP, Delfino, and Jamario. Use them.

MLB Predictions

Just one quick comment: this is the year I've finally managed to get over my Toronto-bias. No longer will I predict based on what I want to happen, but what I actually think will. That's right, I won't be taking the Jays to make the playoffs and I'll predict the Mets will make it. I hope then, as usual, my predictions will be horribly wrong.

AL East
1. Red Sox
2. Blue Jays
3. Yankees
4. Rays
5. Orioles

AL Central
1. Detroit Tigers
2. Cleveland Indians (Wild Card)
3. Minnesota Twins
4. Chicago White Sox
5. KC Royals

West
1. Seattle Mariners
2. LA Angels
3. Oakland A's
4. Texas Rangers

• The AL West, largely due to injuries to Kelvim Escobar and John Lackey, will be by far the worst division in the AL
• The AL Wild Card will come down to the final week, with the Yankees and Jays falling just short of the Indians.

NL East

1. NY Mets

2. Atlanta Braves

3. Philadelphia Phillies

4. Florida Marlins

5. Washington Nationals

NL Central

1. Chicago Cubs

2. Milwaukee Brewers

3. Houston Astros

4. St. Louis Cardinals

5. Cincinnati Reds

6. Pittsburgh Pirates

NL West

1. Arizona Diamondbacks

2. Colorado Rockies (Wild-Card)

3. San Diego Padres

4. LA Dodgers

5. SF Giants

PLAYOFFS:

Round 1:

Red Sox over Indians

Tigers over Mariners

D-Backs over Cubs

Mets over Rockies

Round 2:

Red Sox over Tigers

D-Backs over Mets

World Series:

D-Backs over Red Sox

Stay Tuned for NBA Playoff predictions and possibly some more random MLB thoughts...

My e-mail correspondance with Chad Ford

I've been e-mailing back and forth with Chad Ford, and I wanted to share will everyone a paragraph I wrote that both he and I found to be incredibly brilliant. I wrote:

"I'm a little nervous for the Suns. So far, they're a lot better when they go small and Shaq is on the bench, but I guess they need him to win in the hyper-competitive West, and there's still plenty of time. Dallas is stupid -- Kidd is borderline washed up: can't shoot and turns the ball over way way too much. They're losing in the first round. Lakers got a major steal in Gasol. I think the only things that can stop them in the playoffs are Kobe's finger injury, Kobe's ego, or the Suns -- if they click with O'Neal. Speaking of the Spurs, the pickup of Kurt Thomas was very significant. Ultimately, though, here's my prediction: Brent Barry holds the key to the Western Conference. He said he's signing with the Spurs or the Suns. If he signs with the Spurs, the Lakers take it. If he signs with the Suns, it's Phoenix in the finals."

That's right, mark my words: Brent Barry, more so than any other big-name acquisition, will determine the fate of the 2007-08 Western Conference Champion.

The REAL Reason Behind the Shaq Trade

Many people have been wondering what the Phoenix Suns were thinking when they traded for Shaquille O'Neal. After all, the Suns play at a frenetic pace, trying to hoist up shots in ":07 Second or Less" (good book by the way); O'Neal, on the other hand, will be lucky to cross half court in seven seconds. The Suns also got rid of Shawn Marion, a player widely considered to be vital to the team's success over the last three years. Some pundits argue that the Steves (MVP point guard Nash and sharpshooting GM Kerr) felt there was no way the Suns could match up with the improved, bigger frontcourts of the West. Others opined that Marion's presence created such chemistry problems that the life was being sucked out of the team. I happen to think the trade happened for a combination of those reasons, but I also think something more was at play here.
Since signing Nash, the Suns have bucked trends in the NBA and generally operated against the grain of conventional NBA wisdom. The defensive-minded Pistons win the 2004 NBA championship causing every other team trying to adopt their style? Phoenix plays at a pace more frenetic than any NBA team since the Showtime Lakers. Point guards tend to decline once they hit their 30s? Let's lock up Steve Nash until he's 36. Most NBA coaches protect the confidentiality of their team like they're in possession of CIA intelligence? Mike D'Antoni happily allows Sports Illustrated writer Jack McCallum to follow the team around for the year, allowing him to sit in on every meeting, practice, and 20 second timeout.
By trading Marion, the Suns are establishing a new trend. For too long, NBA teams have been held hostage by max-players signed to multi-year contracts. It's a situation NBA fans are all too familiar with; "star" player signs with team for 6 years, things go sour in year 2, and by year 4 he demands a trade to a contending team. Yes I'm talking to you Vince, Kobe, T-Mac, Paul Pierce, etc. (and don't even get me started on "good-guy" Alonzo Mourning). Unfortunately, most of these players have eventually had their wishes granted. Vince and T-Mac were traded, and Kobe and Pierce were given help that satisfied their trade demands. These players, instead of taking responsibility as the face of a franchise should, withered under the pressure and demanded their way out. Marion's case is slightly different; he wishes he was the go to guy. It's not enough for him to play third fiddle on one of the most exciting teams in NBA history. He needs to be higher up on the ladder, even if that means demanding a trade and causing a rift on his current team.
Enter the Suns: led by D'Antoni, widely perceived as one of the funniest personalities in the league, this team has a good sense of humour. They looked at Marion's situation and took the opportunity to establish a great precedent. While the Suns make their annual trip deep into the post-season, Marion will be watching the playoffs on TV, thinking about the Heat's 65-loss season. So while Shaq may or may not push Phoenix over the hump, what really matters is that the Suns have shown the entire league what to do with malcontent "star" players. Andrei Kirilenko, don't enjoy being the third most important player on last year's Western Conference runner-up? How does Memphis sound? Oh, Kobe, they didn't tell you??? We only traded for Gasol to make up for the scoring we're going to lose when we ship you to the T-Wolves. T-Mac, upset that you have to play Robin to Yao's Batman? There's a huge spotlight you can occupy in Madison Square Gardens.
Hopefully NBA teams react to Phoenix's trade for Shaq, not by trying to bolster their frontcourt, but by shipping whiny, overpaid "stars" to situations where they can finally be happy.

Anthony Parker says: "Impossible is nothing."

Watch AP's miraculous buzzer beater in Washington last week, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uQXaULLaQSE , keeping in mind this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cw_Y85Mi7Tg .

Impossible is nothing.

First Tri-Mester Report

It's time to look at the first third of the NBA season and look at how my pre-season predictions are holding up.

--Runners-up in brackets
NBA MVP:
Pre-season pick: LeBron James (Steve Nash)

First tri-mester: Kevin Garnett (Chris Paul)
While LeBron got off to a torrid start, his team is faltering and his production has cooled recently. And although Nash continues to marvel with his passing and leadership, 2007-08 has begun the changing of the (point) guard in the NBA. Deron Williams has been flat out balling, improving all his career numbers and Tony Parker, when healthy, has once again been great. However, the story of this season for point guards had been Chris Paul, as he threatens to be the first player in NBA history to average 20 points, 10 assists, and 3 steals in a season. Further, he's 4th in the NBA in player efficiency, a stat usually dominated by big men. Paul has elevated a Hornets team which would struggle to beat the Knicks without him into a Western conference power -- a team no one wants to see in the playoffs.
Enough has been said about the Celts and KG everywhere else that I don't need to say anything but this: KG is the motor of that team; his intensity and defence set the tone every night. When you're the unquestioned leader of a 27-3 team, you're also the unquestioned NBA MVP. Here's hoping the Celts start sucking and CP3 can take this award from him.

Rookie of the Year:
Pre-season: Kevin Durant (Al Horford)
Current: Durant (Horford)
This was a pretty obvious pre-season pick for anyone who followed college basketball last year. There are some nice surprises in the rookie class this year, including the emergence of Super Jamario starting for the Raps and Sean Williams of the Nets who has proved you need no offensive talent to be a staple in the NBA TV daily top 10. I see no change in the top 2 rookies for the rest of the year, unless Horford decides to physically assault another NBA player with a spinal condition and gets suspended indefinitely.

Coach of the Year:
Pre-season:Marc Iavaroni (Stan Van Gundy)
Current: Nate McMillan (Van Gundy)
The voters will likely choose Doc Rivers as the winner, and I'm here to tell you that's a huge mistake, just like choosing Sam Mitchell last year was too. The NBA should institute a rule preventing Executive and Coach of the Year awards going to the same team. The Raps improved drastically last year not because Mitchell finally figured out how to draw Xs and Os, but because Bryan Colangelo spun his Midas Touch on the team, trading for TJ Ford, drafting Andrea Bargnani, bringing in AP !8, etc. So too, Danny Ainge should get the credit for bringing in KG and Ray Allen and all those crappy role players who are made so much better cuz of KG. Doc Rivers has been a horrible coach his whole career; getting good players doesnt make him a good coach.
McMillan, on the other hand, has been at the helms at the most shocking turnaround in the NBA this year. The Blazers lost their big addition when Greg Oden was sidelined for the year and yet the Blazers have won 14 of their last 15 games somehow. This award is McMillan's to lose.
PS -- Although the Iavaroni pick and my prediction the Grizzlies would make the playoffs look ridiculous now, I do believe this team is turning a corner and will be a second-half spoiler that no team jockeying for playoff position wants to see.

6th Man:
Preseason: Leandro Barbosa (Manu Ginobili)
Current: Ginobili (Barbosa)
Again, not a difficult category to predict; Ginobili has been better, though, and deserves the award, at this point of the season, over Barbosa who has also been good but not at the level of Ginobili who has been the Spurs most consistent performer this year.

Most Improved:
Preseason: LaMarcus Aldridge (Daniel Gibson)
Current: Aldridge (Rudy Gay)
Gibson kinda sucks, but Aldridge has looked impressive from the get-go, dominating the Spurs in the Blazers opener this year and never looking back. Between Gay and Aldridge it's a tough call, but due to the Balzers being a better team and Aldridge improving his rebounding numbers more, I'm giving him the egde.

Defensive Player:
Preseason: Shawn Marion (Tim Duncan)
Current:Kevin Garnett (Chris Paul)
A redux of the race to the MVP, Garnett once again beats out Paul as his Celts are dominating the NBA through the stingy defence which is first in Points Allowed and the more worthwhile stat, Points Per 100 possessions. Paul, averging 2.97 steals a game is a one man trap, a lock-down defender and a game changing presence on defence.


The Rest:

• Look for the Raptors, Bulls, Cavs, and Nets to get rolling a bit a move towards 4-7 spots in the east, with the Raps making a push to knock Orlando out of the 3 seed.
• The Celts will not win 70 games, but will come awful close. I'm sensing 68 wins. However, they will not be the team to represent the East in the Finals, either because of injuries or because Flip Saunders will finally figure out how to coach in the playoffs.
• I'm as shocked as anyone, but the Rockets will not make the playoffs. The Warriors and Lakers will, but the Blazers will not.
• I'm still picking Phoenix to win the championship, even though they make every center they play against look like Wilt Chamberlin. I like the Suns not because I think they're the best team, but because I really really like Steve Nash. Amare Stoudemire, though, is a horrible on the ball post defender and will likely be the reason the Suns lose in the playoffs.
• Nonetheless, it's Suns over Pistons in June in a classic battle of offense vs. defence with the Suns prevailing in 6.
• Last prediction: Jamario Moon will win the Slam Dunk Competition with an array of dunks thought not to be humanly possible.