NBA Playoff Predictions

Eastern Conference:

Boston over Atlanta (5 games):

This is my upset pick of the first round; the Hawks will steal a game from the Celts – but that’s all.

Detroit over Philadelphia (4 games):

Detroit is notorious for mailing in long stretches of basketball, led by The Real Mailman, Rasheed Wallace. The Pistons even lose focus sometimes during the playoffs. Just a few years ago, as a 1seed, they were down 3-1 in the first round to T-Mac’s woeful Orlando team. Philly, by virtue of their blistering finish to the season, have the Pistons notice entering the playoffs, and I don’t think they’ll be taken lightly. Philly has a nice core of athletic players which complements their up-tempo style, but their lack of a go-to-guy will cause them to be swept.

Orlando over Toronto (7 games):

As a Toronto fan, I’m probably giving the Raps an extra win here. Toronto whimpered down the stretch, faltering to a .500 record after being as much as 8 games over. The Magic, conversely, have been consistently good all season and have D-HO dominating the paint. While the Raps have played the Magic pretty well recently and were privately very excited to play the Magic, and not the Cavs, the biggest difference in this series will likely be at the sidelines. Sam Mitchell was badly outcoached by Lawrence Frank in last year’s playoffs and look for the same thing to happen with Stan Van Gundy this year. Look for the Raps to look confused against the Magic’s zone defence and a prediction: the Raptors will lose a close game in this series solely because of a boneheaded play in crunch time. At this point, I can’t predict the specifics, but look for it in games 3-6.

Washington over Cleveland (6 games):

LeBron James is good enough to win 2 games by himself. The rest of his team couldn’t beat the Kansas Jayhawks. Barring a superhuman performance from The King, the Wizards depth, superior coaching, and better blogging should propel them to victory.

Western Conference:

Lakers over Nuggets (7 games):

Are the Nuggets this year’s Warriors? After edging out Golden State for the last playoff state, everyone will be rooting for them (except for NBA executives rooting for a Boston-LA final and bandwagon LA ‘basketball fans’). This is the way the series is going to go down: Denver will steal game 1 on the road, LA will win games 2 and 3, Denver takes 4, LA 5, and Denver sends it to a 7^th game by protecting home court. Unfortunately for Denver, Kobe Bryant will make sure the Lakers don’t face the same fate as the ’07 Mavs and blow the Nuggets out of game 7.

The reason this series is going to be closer than people think is because this is a terrible matchup for the Lakers, an excellent offensive but mediocre defensive team. What makes this Lakers team so hard to guard is their unselfishness and a willingness to make an extra pass to get wide open looks. Against a pathetic defensive team like the Nuggets, they were going to get a ton of open looks anyways. Essentially, then, the Lakers greatest strength is weakened significantly. Conversely, the Lakers’ D will not be able to put the clamps on Denver’s high-powered offence. High scoring teams like the Nuggets, Warriors, and Suns have more success against teams with good offences and bad defences and struggle mightily against teams that defend well – and take away these offensive teams’ strengths. This is why the Suns have struggled so much against the Pistons and Spurs but have pretty much dominated everyone else in the NBA over the last 4 years.

Hornets over Mavs (5 games):

Chris Paul has absolutely dominated the point guard position this year, especially embarrassing Steve Nash and Jason Kidd each time he faced the older guys. While Kidd used to be an elite defender, he’s not any more, and Paul will take advantage. The experts are mostly picking the Mavs, but I don’t buy it. People have been underestimating this team all year long, but it’s time to realize the truth. This team is legit. Chris Paul is legit. And this series is not going to be that close.

Suns over Spurs (6 games):

Is this the year that the Suns finally beat the Spurs in the playoffs? I say yes. San Antonio has looked particularly vulnerable this year, and there offence sputtered badly down the stretch. If Ginobili’s shot is off, this Spurs team will struggle to score in a big way. The Suns can throw Shaq at Tim Duncan to push him off the block or, if Ginobili isn’t hitting, double down and force Duncan to pass every time. Meanwhile, the Suns have to win this year. Because if they don’t, I’m afraid their time has passed. New Orleans is an up and coming team, the Lakers will be getting better and better as Bryant, Gasol, and Bynum continue to mesh, and even the Trail Blazers will be much improved over the next couple of years – never mind the Jazz, Mavs, Spurs and Rockets who have a couple more good years in them. So look for Steve Nash to play particularly inspired basketball and coax everything he can out of Grant Hill, Shaq, and the ever-improving Amare Stoudemire.

Jazz over Rockets (4 games):

The Jazz don’t lose at home. T-Mac doesn’t win in the playoffs. Add that up and you get the first team in NBA history to have a 22 game win streak and get swept in the playoffs. At least they’ll always be featured in an annoying graphic indicating that the 2007-08 Houston Rockets, featuring Carl Landry, Luis Scola, and Rafer Alston, had the second longest win streak in NBA history.

2^nd round:

Celts over Wizards (5 games)

Pistons over Magic (6 games)

Lakers over Jazz (6 games)

Suns over Hornets (7 games)

3^rd round:

Celts over Pistons (6 games)

Suns over Lakers (7 games)

Finals:

Suns over Celtics (7 games)

Raptors Screwed!!! (By Sam Mitchell)

Closely scrutinizing the controversial video of TJ Ford's disallowed game-winning alleyoop last night proves quite telling. While the clock clearly started before TJ touched the ball, in violation of league rules, it's unclear that he scored in the 0.5 seconds left, so it's unlikely the Raptors protest will be successful. What can be determined from that video, though, is why the Raptors were in that situation in the first place. As Ford went up for the alleyoop, Mike Bibby looked on from the sidelines. That's right -- the sidelines, even though he's their best offensive player. Interesting concept that is: when in need of a stop, a coach might actually alter who should be playing. Sam Mitchell has not figured this out. With 11 seconds left, Atlanta had the ball down 3 points. Mitchell decided to leave TJ Ford -- the Raps' shortest player -- on the floor to defend the three-point line and try to secure the rebound. The Raptors ended up giving the Hawks three good looks from beyond the arc as they could neither defend the Atlanta shooters well nor corral the rebounds. On Bibby's game-tying 3, he shot it "over" the barely 6 foot tall Ford. Maybe, just maybe, that shot would have been more difficult had Anthony Parker been guarding him. Mitchell: you have three capable, athletic, defensive swingmen in AP, Delfino, and Jamario. Use them.